[The concept of pulp futures]
Futures is completely different from pulp stock. Pulp stock is a real tradeable commodity. Pulp futures are mainly not goods, but standardized tradable contracts with pulp as the target. Therefore, this subject matter is pulp. The days of settlement of futures can be one week later, one month later, three months later, or even one year later. A contract or agreement to buy or sell futures is called a futures contract. The place to buy and sell futures is called the futures market. Investors can invest in futures or speculate.
[Transaction characteristics of pulp futures]
1. Two-way: One of the biggest differences between futures trading and the stock market is that futures can be traded in both directions. Futures can buy more or sell short. When the price rises, you can buy low and sell high. When the price falls, you can buy high and buy low. Being long can make money, and shorting can make money, so there is no bear market in futures. (In the bear market, the stock market will be sluggish and the futures market will remain the same, and the opportunity remains.)
2, low cost: the futures trading country does not levy stamp duty and other taxes, the only fee is the transaction fee. The procedures for the three domestic exchanges are about two-tenths and threes, plus the additional fees for the brokerage company. The unilateral handling fee is also less than one-thousandth of the transaction amount. (Low cost is a guarantee of success)
3. Leverage: The principle of leverage is the charm of futures investment. There is no need to pay all the funds in the futures market, and domestic futures trading only needs to pay 5% margin to get the right to future transactions. Due to the use of margin, the original market was enlarged by more than ten times. Suppose a certain day copper price seals the daily limit (the futures limit is only 3% of the settlement price of the previous trading day), the operation is right, the capital profit rate is 60% (3% ÷ 5%), which is 6 times the stock market's daily limit. . (There is a chance to make money)
4, the opportunity doubled: the futures are "T + 0" transactions, so that your application of funds to the extreme, you can trade at any time, at any time to close the position. (Convenient access can increase the security of investment)
5, greater than the negative market: futures are zero and the market, the futures market itself does not create profits. In a certain period of time, regardless of the entry and exit of funds and the withdrawal of transaction costs, the total amount of funds in the futures market is constant, and the profit of market participants comes from the loss of another trader. When the stock market enters a bear market, the market price has shrunk dramatically, and the dividends are meager. The state and enterprises absorb funds and there is no short-selling mechanism. The total amount of funds in the stock market will have a negative growth for a period of time, and the total profit will be less than the loss. (zero is always greater than negative)
[inkMacSystemFont, "" font-size:17px;background-color:#ffffff;""="""">Main Features of Futures]
1. The terms of the commodity variety, trading unit, contract month, deposit, quantity, quality, grade, delivery time, delivery location, etc. of the futures contract are all established and standardized, and the only variable is the price. The standard for futures contracts is usually designed by futures exchanges and approved by national regulators for listing.
2. The futures contract is traded under the organization of the futures exchange, which has legal effect, and the price is generated by the open bidding method in the trading hall of the exchange; most of the foreign countries use the open bidding method, while China uses computer trading.
3. The performance of futures contracts is guaranteed by the exchange and no private transactions are allowed.
4. Futures contracts may perform or terminate contractual obligations by settlement of stock or by hedging transactions.
Pulp concept and classification
Pulp is a fibrous material made from plant fiber and processed by the same method. It is the main raw material of the paper industry.
Pulp can be classified into wood pulp, non-wood pulp and waste paper pulp according to the source of the raw materials. Made of wood, using chemical, mechanical or a combination of both
Wood pulp is mostly used in the field of household paper and cultural paper; pulp made of non-wood fiber, such as bamboo, grass, etc., is called
Non-wood pulp, non-wood pulp is mostly used to make household paper; recycled paper from secondary recycled paper is collectively called waste paper pulp, and waste paper pulp is mostly used in the manufacture of packaging paper.
Application of bleaching needle pulp and bleaching pulp
Wood pulp is mainly used for the production of household paper (toilet paper, napkins, etc.), double-adhesive paper (A4 paper, notebook, book pages, etc.), coated paper (advertising pages, albums, etc.), white cardboard (advanced carton, goods) Lining, etc.).
In the production process, the papermaking enterprises mix the softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp and chemical pulp in a certain proportion to make the same product.
Second, the supply and demand of pulp
The supply and demand of global pulp-removed waste paper pulp has remained stable in recent years. In 2017, the demand for pulp supply was around 180 million tons. In 2017, the total consumption of pulp in China was 100.51 million tons, an increase of 2.59% over the previous year. The wood pulp accounted for 31.52 million tons, accounting for 31% of the total pulp consumption, of which imported wood pulp accounted for 21%, domestic wood pulp accounted for 10%; waste paper pulp was 63.200 million tons, accounting for 63% of total pulp consumption, including pulping with imported waste paper. 21%, using domestic waste paper pulp accounted for 42%; non-wood pulp 5.97 million tons, accounting for 6% of total pulp consumption, of which rice straw pulp accounted for 2.5%, bamboo pulp accounted for 1.6%, 苇 (è») pulp accounted for 0.7% %, bagasse pulp accounted for 0.9%, and other non-wood pulp accounted for 0.3%.
According to the survey data of China Paper Association, the national pulp output in 2017 was 79.49 million tons, of which wood pulp output was 10.5 million tons, accounting for 13.2%, and waste paper pulp output was 63.02 million tons, accounting for 79.2% (domestic waste pulp output was 40.21 million tons, imported). The waste paper raw materials obtained 23.08 million tons of pulp, and the non-wood pulp output was 5.97 million tons, accounting for 7.5%.
In recent years, the consumption of bleaching needle pulp in China has stabilized at around 8 million tons. Due to policy and restrictions on forest resources, China's floating needle pulp production capacity is relatively small, and supply mainly depends on imports; China's bleaching pulp production and consumption are gradually increasing, and consumption in 2017 exceeded 16 million tons.
The bleaching needle pulp is mainly imported into countries with high latitudes such as Europe, Russia, North America and South America; the imports of broadleaf pulp are basically from low latitude countries such as Indonesia and Brazil.
Third, the domestic pulp downstream situation
According to the survey data of the China Paper Association, in 2017, there were about 2,800 paper and board production enterprises nationwide, and the national paper and board production volume was 111.3 million tons, an increase of 2.53% over the previous year. The consumption was 108.97 million tons, an increase of 4.59% over the previous year, and the per capita annual consumption was 78 kg (1.39 billion people). From 2008 to 2017, the annual growth rate of paper and board production was 3.77%, and the average annual growth rate of consumption was 3.59%.
Fourth, the upstream and downstream of the pulp
1. Upstream raw materials
Wood pulp raw materials are divided into hardwood and softwood.
Commonly used coniferous wood pulp species are: Scandinavian pine, radiata pine, southern pine, redwood, Xiaoqian pine, cedar, hemlock, white pine, white spruce, black cedar, douglas pine, larch, balsam Cold pine, alpine fir, etc.
Commonly used broad-leaved wood pulps are: eucalyptus, acacia, poplar, birch, maple and so on.
China's forest coverage is low, only 22.2%, lower than the world average of 31%. The per capita forest area is only 26% of the world's per capita level, only 0.15 hectares, ranking 146 out of 233 countries and regions around the world. China's forest productivity is low, the forest's stock per hectare is only 69% of the average level, and the plantation per hectare is only 52.76 cubic meters, and the amount of damage is huge, reaching 118 million cubic meters per year. At present, China's recoverable forest land area only accounts for 13%, and the recoverable accumulation only accounts for 23%. The relative lack of timber resources caused by this resource endowment has limited the development of the wood pulp industry. Compared with the resource endowments of the world's large pulp companies, China's overall forest coverage and per capita forest area are far lower than those in Finland, Russia, Brazil, Sweden, Indonesia, Canada and Chile. In the pulp producing country, the domestic wood pulp industry has obvious resource ceilings. Due to the lack of raw materials, China's main dependence on wood pulp imports has remained high for a long time.
2. Downstream demand
The downstream of pulp is mainly divided into cultural paper, wrapping paper, household paper and specialty paper.
Cultural paper refers to the writing and printing paper used to spread cultural knowledge. It is mostly used for information transmission and cultural inheritance. It mainly includes uncoated printing paper, coated printing paper and newsprint. Typical uncoated printing papers include offset paper, writing paper, light paper, SC paper, xerographic paper, printing paper, and the like. Coated printing paper mainly includes lightweight coated paper and coated paper, among which the proportion of coated paper consumption accounts for more than 90% of coated cultural paper.
Packaging paper refers to the general name of a type of paper used for packaging purposes. It is generally used for the outer packaging of downstream household appliances, daily chemicals, food and beverage, cigarettes and other industrial products. The main paper types of wrapping paper include corrugated paper, cardboard paper, white paper and white cardboard. Among them, cardboard paper and corrugated paper are mostly used in home appliance packaging and daily packaging, etc. Whiteboard paper and white cardboard are often used in the packaging of cigarettes, food, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.
Tissue paper is mainly divided according to the use scene, and household paper is generally used in daily life scenes. From the perspective of the market segmentation of tissue paper, toilet paper is the main product of household paper.
Special paper is made by using different papers to make paper with special functions. For example, synthetic fiber, synthetic pulp or mixed wood pulp can be used separately. It can be modified or processed with different materials to give paper different functions and uses. For example, for daily use, building materials, electrical products, industrial filters, machinery, agricultural, information, optical, cultural and artistic, biochemical cutting-edge technology, etc., as long as it is used for special purposes. All are collectively referred to as specialty paper.
The main raw material for cultural paper, household paper and some wrapping paper is wood pulp, and the main raw material for most packaging paper is waste paper pulp. details as follows:
V. Basic situation of the drifting needle futures in the previous period
1. Futures contract (draft for comment)
2. Delivery rules
Delivery unit: The delivery unit of the bleached sulphate softwood pulp (hereinafter referred to as the bleached needle pulp) futures contract is 20 tons per standard warehouse receipt weight (air dry weight), and the delivery should be delivered in an integral multiple of each standard warehouse receipt.
Delivery quality regulations: The tensile index, fracture index and tear index of the delivered product should meet or exceed the first grade of softwood pulp in QB/T1678-2017 "Coniferous wood pulp in bleached kraft pulp" The quality of the product, the specific index resistance is greater than 87%, the breakage resistance is greater than 5%, the tear is greater than 8%, and the delivery of the needle should be the genuine brand of the designated brand produced by the exchange.
Packaging and stacking of delivered goods:
1) The bleaching needle slurry of each standard warehouse receipt should be composed of the same brand of genuine pulp products produced by the same manufacturer.
2) The bleaching needle slurry used for delivery shall comply with the packaging requirements of the designated brand goods produced by the manufacturer recognized by the Exchange. Each package shall be clearly marked with the name of the product to be identified.
3) The pulp should be packaged intact and clean. The designated delivery warehouse shall inspect the whole batch of delivered goods at the time of acceptance. If it is found to be affected by obvious moisture, mildew, pollution or serious damage, it shall be rejected and shall not be used for delivery.
4) In the warehouse goods, if the package wire breaks or loose goods, it should be repackaged and fastened with the specified wire to be used for delivery. The packaging cost is borne by the owner.
5) The floating object of the standard needle warehouse for the delivery of the drifting needle should be piled up according to the position, with 500 tons as a stacking position.
Delivery of goods must-have documents:
1) Domestic products: The inspection certificate issued by the designated inspection agency of the exchange and the product quality certificate issued by the manufacturer shall be provided and validated by the exchange.
2) Imported goods: The inspection certificate issued by the inspection agency designated by the exchange, the customs declaration form for import goods consistent with the physical object, the special payment certificate for customs value collection, the certificate of origin (certificate of origin), the certificate of product quality, etc. The material is validated by the exchange.
Shortness and pound difference: The drifting of the needle is measured by the measured dry weight. The physical spill of each standard warehouse receipt is not more than ± 5%, and the weight error is not more than ± 1%.
Standard warehouse receipt validity period:
1) The domestic bleaching needle pulp used for physical delivery is valid for the last delivery month of the second year of the production year, and the time limit is transferred to the spot and cancelled.
2) Imported drifting needle pulp for physical delivery shall be put into storage within six months from the date of arrival. The validity period is the last delivery month of the second year of the arrival date, and the time limit is transferred to the spot and cancelled.
Delivery settlement price: The delivery settlement price of the floating needle futures is the weighted average price of the transaction price of the last 5 transaction days of the contract according to the transaction volume.
Delivery costs and delivery warehouse: the exchange will announce separately
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