3D (3Dprinting) printing has emerged as an early innovation concept in China, and has been sweeping A shares for more than two years with the concept of “additive manufacturingâ€. This new technology, which is said to lead the “fourth industrial revolution†from abroad Spread to the domestic, from the traditional industry to the capital market, it also brought a concept and stock price to the dozens of A-share concept companies.
Although the outlook is full, the reality is still skinny. The 3D printing in the domestic market not only started late, the overall industrial production mode is extensive, the volume is small, the mature business model is lacking, and the shortage of supplies and high cost are faced, and it is difficult to realize the dilemma of mass production. According to public information, the concept of A-share 3D printing has not brought substantial benefits to the relevant concept companies in the past two years.
"At present, most of the listed companies that are involved in 3D printing are still in the research and development stage, and they have not yet become a mature industrial product. The secondary market is still in the stage of concept speculation," said a person familiar with 3D printing investment.
The outlook is very full
3D printing, also known as “additive manufacturingâ€, is an emerging rapid prototyping technology. It is a manufacturing method that uses three-dimensional digital model design and uses various processes such as laser sintering to realize superposition of raw materials. This method is the first one. Digital manufacturing in the full sense and possible bio/bionic manufacturing in the future.
The 3D printing technology in the modern sense was born in the United States in the mid-1980s. It has been developed abroad for more than 20 years, but it has only been more than two years in China, especially in the A-share market. A person familiar with 3D printing pointed out that the biggest difference between this new technology and the traditional manufacturing industry is that in the process of product molding, 3D printing eliminates the complicated process of traditional manufacturing, no need for mold, one molding, so 3D printing can be overcome. Some designs that were not possible in traditional manufacturing made more complex structures.
Industrial Securities related analysts expect that the global print market will reach 10 billion US dollars in 2016, and the market scale will achieve exponential growth, reaching $13 billion in 2018 and more than $20 billion in 2020.
"We expect that domestic 3D printing will come to the window in the next three to five years, and the potential market demand is huge. The 3D printing industry has broad application prospects and is beyond the traditional, widely used in industrial manufacturing, military, construction, medical, automotive and other fields. The future 3D industry The development needs civilian plates, mold design and military manufacturing to drive three horses." Industrial Securities related analysts said. According to Wohlers Associates statistics, 3D printing is currently used in the two major fields of consumer electronics and automotive industry, accounting for 36%, and is also being promoted in aerospace manufacturing and medical fields.
It is understood that aerospace manufacturing and biomedical are currently considered to be the two most widely used areas of industrial 3D printing in the future.
"Compared with traditional manufacturing technology, industrial-grade 3D printers have great advantages in the fields of aerospace manufacturing, biomedical, which are not cost-sensitive, do not require mass production, and are customized. It is expected to become the main market in the 3D printing market in the future. Source." Zhang Lei, an analyst at CIC Securities, said.
Under the prosperous industry prospects, the A-share market capital speculation is also closely followed, not only for equipment such as Huagong Technology, Huazhong CNC, Zhonghaida and other stocks, consumables such as Yinbang, Hongchang Electronics and technology stocks. And the Han nationality lasers have all received funds for speculation.
Industry bottleneck is difficult to overcome
Despite the prosperous prospects, after more than two years of speculation, some sellers bluntly said that although there are many domestic companies involved in 3D printing, they are still in the stage of extensive production equipment, lacking core leading fish enterprises, and more importantly, domestic 3D printing. Due to problems such as production efficiency, material shortage, and lack of core technologies, enterprises may not be able to achieve mass production and large-scale production in the short term.
"At present, China's 3D printing industry is still in its infancy. From the perspective of the entire industry, due to the lack of leading enterprises, the government temporarily lacks targeted support measures, and the overall industry is still small; on the other hand, China's manufacturing industry Still in the extensive form, the impact of 3D printing technology on each link is not enough, and the acceptance is low.†Southwest Securities’ analysis of the lack of domestic 3D printing indicates that the current domestic 3D printing market is only about 200 million yuan. (including equipment requirements).
In addition to the late start of the domestic industry and the extensive industry, compared with the traditional industry, 3D printing also has its biggest congenital deficiency - it is impossible to commercialize mass production, which is the most criticized by the industry.
At the beginning of the rise of 3D printing technology in China, Guo Taiming, chairman of Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision, used this to bombard 3D printing. He said that 3D printing technology cannot be mass-produced for commercial use and has no commercial value. Taking the phone made by 3D printing as an example, he said that the phone can be manufactured, but it can only be seen and cannot be used. Therefore, 3D printed products cannot be electronically assembled and cannot be mass-produced for electronic products.
The reason is that some analysts pointed out that on the one hand, the consumables used in 3D printing are very limited. At present, the raw materials for 3D printing are mainly divided into only 10 kinds of gypsum, inorganic powder, photosensitive resin, plastic, ceramic, etc., and the price is relatively expensive, especially the metal.
In the eyes of many industry insiders, the shortage of consumables corresponding to domestic 3D equipment mainly comes from two reasons: cheaper to make money, manufacturers are not willing to produce, and expensive consumables can not keep up with the existing technology due to lack of policy support and Subsidies, manufacturers are reluctant to invest capital and labor costs to research and development.
On the other hand, the price of 3D printers is very high. Most desktop-level 3D printers are priced at around 20,000 yuan, and the price of domestic imitations is around 6,000 yuan, but the quality is difficult to guarantee. In addition, 3D printing has certain limitations in production efficiency such as product accuracy and production time, and has become one of the main reasons hindering mass production.
Xue Huiqiang, co-founder of Blackboat Technology, believes that 3D printing technology is good at solving individualized, complicated and difficult production techniques. This is precisely what traditional manufacturing dreams of, but the traditional manufacturing industry is good at mass production and large-scale production. , is the congenital deficiency of 3D printing. That is to say, 3D printing has the advantages of realizing the design and creativity, but turning the model into a commodity still depends on the characteristics of traditional manufacturing batching and scale.
"At present, AD's 3D printing company has not many core technologies, most of which are in the experimental development stage. Currently, there are no large-scale finished products. In the short term, the 3D printing industry must truly realize the complete industrial chain from design to mass production. It’s still hard,†one buyer said.
(Editor)
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