Lead: The raw paper that has been languishing for several months, ushered in a strong rising storm before the arrival of the double 12, dozens of paper mills and paperboard factories in Zhejiang, Jilin, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Hubei, Fujian and other places issued price increases Letters, as of December 17, the price increase letter has increased to 74, even the unpaid orders have been adjusted within the price range. A wave of price hikes, many small and medium-sized carton factories really can't stand it!
On December 17, the price increase letter has increased to 74, a wave of price increases, small and medium-sized carton factories can not stand
The raw paper that has been langued for several months ushered in a strong upswing before the arrival of the Double 12, and dozens of paper mills in Zhejiang, Jilin, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and other places issued price increases, Zhejiang, Hubei, Fujian and other places. Cardboard prices of many paperboard factories are raised by 3%, or by 1.7 yuan/square.
This wave of price hikes has intensified. As of December 17, the price increase function has increased to 74, and even the unpaid orders that have been paid are within the price adjustment range.
A wave of price hikes, many small and medium-sized carton factories really can't stand it!!
How did this wave of price hikes come about? What impact will it have on small and medium-sized carton factories at the end of the year? How will the follow-up situation develop? The most direct pressure on this group of price increases, the carton factory, these problems are undoubtedly It is the most noteworthy.
Xiaobian passed the recent important information on the price of packaging paper, and it has been through the depth of nine doubtful points to analyze this wave of price surges.
The paper mills’ price hikes are high, and the country’s abandonment of the rising sentiment will drive the wave of price increases.
"Because of the rising price of domestic waste paper... In order to continue the operation of the company... From December X, the price of XX paper rose by X yuan per ton." On the 12th, the price increase of Huadong Paper Mill was high, just two days new. More than 20 price increases were added. And all the spearheads point to the price increase of waste paper.
The price increase letters of various factories seem to imply that the price of waste paper has risen and the raw materials are in short supply. Driven by the rising price of the country's waste prices, the packaging paper will usher in another wave of price increases.
145 paper mills raised the price of waste paper by as much as 200 yuan / ton, killing paper mills by an unprepared
From December 7th to 10th, the latest paper waste quotation information of the national paper mills, except for a small downward adjustment, the other paper mills were adjusted online, with the highest increase of 200 yuan / ton.
On December 7th, 32 paper mills raised their prices. On December 8th, 34 companies raised their prices. On December 9th, 43 companies raised their prices. During the four days from December 7th to 10th, a total of 145 paper mills raised their waste. Paper price.
The waste paper market experienced a period of ups and downs for several months. Suddenly, the whole line rose, and it really killed many small and medium-sized paper mills. However, the price of scrap yellow paper has rebounded since last weekend, more due to the rain and snow weather. There is no clear evidence to prove that the national waste recycling market is out of stock.
The price of waste paper has fallen back, and the price of paper and cardboard prices has been greatly increased.
The price of waste paper has fallen.
On November 18th and November 19th, dozens of paper mills across the country lowered the purchase price of national waste, including large-scale paper mills such as Hebei Xiaolong, Tianjin Xiaolong, Shenyang Xiaolong and Yangzhou Yongfengyu.
Among them, starting from December 18, the three bases of Qianlong Hebei, Tianjin and Liaoning Shenyang were lowered by 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu Yangzhou Yongfeng Waste Paper, the price of waste paper was lowered by 30-50 yuan/ton.
Therefore, although the current price of paper and cardboard is on the rise, the momentum of sharp rise is limited due to the lack of support in terms of cost.
The peak season is not prosperous, the demand is weak, the price series is adjusted in the early stage, and the short-term inventory bottoming price is expected to stabilize.
From the raw material data of the factory, the factories have already compressed the raw material inventory cycle to the limit.
Since September, with the weak downstream demand, manufacturers continue to go to waste paper and finished paper stocks. At the end of November, yellow paper stocks reached 5.5 days, which is the latest low; November board manufacturers and social stocks were 1.072 million tons and 1.307 million tons respectively. Compared with October, it decreased by 108,000 tons and 132,000 tons respectively. The price of cardboard paper was stable in the whole month of November.
The lack of peak season and weak demand led to the adjustment of the previous price series, and the short-term inventory bottoming price is expected to stabilize.
The excessive approval of foreign waste import approval has played a role in the finale, stabilizing the fear of raw material supply.
On December 14, 2018, the Solid Waste Center announced the first batch of restricted import announcements in 2019. The publicity form approved 57 paper mills approved a total of 50.518 million tons, and the number of factories accounted for the total number of approved factories in 2018. About 80%, the approved total is directly more than twice the approved total of the first batch (about 2.27 million tons) in 2018, accounting for 28% of the total approved imports of 18,155,400 tons in 2018.
Whether it is the national waste or the external waste, the situation of the market is changing. The national waste price is constantly changing people's minds, and the amount of waste approval is even more variable. The surge in the latest batch of foreign waste import approval quotas has played a role in the finale, which has stabilized the factory's concerns about the supply of raw materials.
Before the construction and improvement of the domestic solid waste recycling system, there is still a large living space for external waste.
On November 29, 2018, the first plenary meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Coordination Group for the Reform of the Importation of Solid Waste Import Management System was banned in Beijing. Li Ganjie, leader of the coordination group and minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech.
The meeting said that "the measures to ban the import of foreign solid waste into the management system for the import of solid wastes are firmly put in place", and the "2019 Work Plan for the Reform of the Import of Solid Wastes into the Management System for the Prohibition of Foreign Waste Entry" was also reviewed and approved in principle. file.
Contacted the 26th batch of foreign waste import and approval only 1 processing plant, a total of 5,000 tons of waste was approved for import, the industry speculated that 2019 outside the import will become more difficult. However, in 2019, the first batch of approvals for the approval of foreign waste imports overturned this inference in a violent manner.
Borrowing the People’s Daily’s commentary on “banning foreign garbage and using earth garbageâ€, it is a reform goal to ban foreign garbage from entering the country, but it cannot be eaten as a fat man. Before the construction and improvement of the domestic solid waste recycling system, there is still a large living space for external waste.
Insufficient downstream orders have made it difficult to enlarge the purchase volume. From the demand side, it is difficult to support the paper price to continue to rise sharply.
In the atmosphere of market screaming at the end of November, paper enterprises improved their shipments. Although the impact of the decline in waste paper prices slowed down slightly, most paper stocks fell to a low level, and only a few large-scale paper enterprises were under a lot of pressure. It is also the reason for the low-end quotation of some small and medium-sized paper enterprises in recent days.
From the demand side, the original paper warehouse of the downstream packaging enterprises is not high, and the demand for corrugated and cardboard paper stocks still exists. However, the shortage of downstream orders has made it difficult to enlarge the purchase volume. It is reported that the current individual paper mills are only about 40% started, so From the demand side, it is difficult to support the paper price to continue to rise sharply.
Long hair, mountain eagle, Jingxing and other giant hair price increase letters, an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton, but led to limited
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 14, the price of corrugated paper fell again in early December 2018, and the price of high-strength corrugated paper was 3757.0 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan from the previous period.
Since November 19th, giants such as Xiaolong, Shanying and Jingxing have issued price increases, ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, it is clear that the leaders The increase in the price of raw paper is also limited.
The supply and demand situation of cardboard paper will be greatly deteriorated, and the paper giants will be almost wiped out.
In recent years, new packaging paper projects have been launched in various parts of China, and the rate of new production capacity has continued to grow. However, due to well-known reasons, the slowdown in consumption has seriously hampered the demand this year and next. It is expected that the supply and demand of cardboard paper will deteriorate significantly.
It is based on this judgment that Qualcomm has simultaneously lowered the ratings of three paper giants, namely Xiaolong, Liwen and Chenming, and the paper giants have been almost wiped out.
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