“Early Childhood Education†is one of the top ten keywords in the education industry in 2017. The data shows that from 2011 to 2016, there were 9.9 million children in kindergartens nationwide. The admission rate in the country is increasing rapidly. It is estimated that the admission rate of Chinese kindergartens will reach 85% in 2020.
Under the background of consumption upgrading, parents pay more and more attention to early education, and the society attaches great importance to the cultivation of talents. The parents continue to advance their children's education and training age, and the expenditure on family preschool education also increases. From "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend", what opportunities exist for early childhood education?
The total number of new students in 2017 decreased by 630,000 compared with last year, mainly due to the sharp decline in the number of children, and the number of second children continued to climb, surpassing one child for the first time. The fertility rate of a child of childbearing age of 20-29 years old during the period of fertility has been falling, from 85% in 2007 to 44% in 2016. Under the cultural background of Confucianism, we believe that the birth peak is only postponed in the next few years. The overall trend of the number of newborns will continue to rise in the future.
However, the talent dividend is the core factor that determines the market for early childhood education. In the context of the increasing emphasis on and demand for talent training in the society, parents are considering many aspects (development of intelligence and talent, winning at the starting line, anxiety for further studies, etc.). As the child's education and training ages continue to advance, the expenditure on family preschool education will gradually increase.
From the “demographic dividend†to the “talent bonusâ€, the prisoner’s dilemma
Starting from the data on neonatal population, why did the birth population in China decline in 2017 after the “comprehensive second-child policy� From "double independence and two children" to "two children alone", and then to the "comprehensive two-child" policy implemented by China since January 1, 2016, the government has been gradually encouraging births since 2000, with the encouragement of the policy 2014. In 2016, the number of domestically born population has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and 2017 is the second year of the implementation of China’s “two-child†comprehensive birth policy. The number of domestically born population (17.23 million) is actually higher than that of 2016. A large decline (reduced by 630,000 people), after splitting the birth data, we found that the reason was that the population of one child fell sharply (reducing 1.15 million), even more than the increase of the second child (an increase of 600,000). Therefore, the two-child policy is still effective in stimulating the population, but the decline in the birth rate of a child is more significant.
So what do you think of the future? Speaking from the delayed birth of a child. It can be seen from the data on the fertility rate of women of childbearing age at all ages published by the National Bureau of Statistics. In the past decade, the fertility rate of a child of childbearing age of 20-29 years old during the fertility period has been falling, from about 85% in 2007 to 44% in 2016, a full reduction of nearly half. The 25-34-year-old women of childbearing age who are the main force of the two-child birth, after the implementation of the “Comprehensive Two-Child†policy in 2016, the fertility rate of the two children has increased significantly. From 2017, the proportion of the two children in the total birth population is over half of the first time. It can be seen that more families who have had one child have chosen to have a second child.
　　
Although the dividend policy of the two children has subsided, the “Confucian†culture still firmly sees the number of domestically born people in the next few years. We believe that an important reason for the decline in the number of births in a child in recent years is actually the postponement of marriage and childbirth after 80 and 90. The deep-seated factors behind it include: under work pressure, they can’t afford to live and they don’t dare to give birth, no children. There is no quality school district for children to attend school. However, in the medium term, under the background of Confucian culture in China (no filial piety is three, no aftermath is big), the proportion of non-fertility in life is always a minority, and more is the post-pushing age under the pressure, so for the next few years Childbearing data, we think, can be enjoyed, and the birth rate of less than 50% of women aged 25-29 who have been suppressed in recent years will be concentrated in the next few years.
　　
The dividends of the newborn population seem to have slowed down, but the emphasis and demand for talent training in the context of consumption upgrades is increasing. In 2014, the government pointed out the future development direction of replacing the “demographic dividend†with “talent dividendsâ€. Talents are the just-needed needs of society, and education is the just-needed talent. The new developments in the seven major people’s livelihoods in the report of the 19th National Congress first mentioned "You have a good education, learn to teach."
In the context of the society's increasing demand and requirements for talents, parents have fallen into the prisoner's dilemma, and education for children is generally like a younger age. In 2017, China's early childhood education market has exceeded 190 billion yuan. Currently, the first-tier cities are the most developed. Take Shanghai as an example. There are about 729 brands in the early childhood education market, and about 2,151 training institutions have been opened, far exceeding all other cities in the country. Second-tier cities outside Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen still have a large gap compared with first-tier cities.
From the data of Sina Education's sample survey in the country, parents' spending on pre-school education has also risen year by year. The education expenditure of preschool children has accounted for 26.39% of the family's annual income. 40% of the families have chosen private kindergartens, and 10% of the children have annual kindergarten fees of more than 10,000 yuan. 89.92% of the children also enrolled in various training courses outside the kindergarten. 36.12% of the preschool children nationwide spent 2001-5000 yuan in the remedial classes. According to the sample survey in Shanghai, the average cost of participating in early childhood education is even more. It has reached 17,832 yuan, and "can't bear the children can't set a wolf" has become "a reluctance to pay tuition and not a good education."
0-3 years old early education market:
Learning and learning, ability cultivation and character shaping are the core
The early childhood education course for 0-3 years old infants is different from the training for higher age groups. Compared with the K12 stage specialist counseling, early education is more focused on immersive and entertaining. The teaching results are not as clear as the test scores. Utilitarianism and visibility, but to guide infants and young children to shape better character and all-round ability in the early stage. The general early education institutions already have basic music courses, mental courses, art courses, etc. On this basis, some institutions also incorporate elements such as building blocks, creative thinking, parent-child interaction, etc., trying to develop competitive and unique courses to attract parents. And use this to create a brand with high recognition.
The main reasons why parents choose to send their children to early education institutions at any cost are as follows:
First, targeted system teaching helps children develop intelligence, exercise logic, and teamwork, and they are more likely to stand out in the future when they choose to go to school.
Second, through the special courses of English, music, art creation, etc., find interest and talent earlier;
Third, a variety of special activities allow parents to take parent-child interaction and early childhood character development in the game of play;
Finally, the professional guidance provided by early education institutions is also an extremely important and effective way to help parents to raise children. It can help parents improve their parenting concepts and learn the method of “cultivation and integrationâ€.
At present, the supervision of domestic early education institutions is in a relatively blank period. Whether it is self-built or franchised, it is relatively simple in terms of approval. According to the data of the first half of 2016 in the first half of the year, the first-tier cities in the country's more than 11,400 early-education institutions accounted for 15.1% of the country's total. The shortage of early-education institutions in the third- and fourth-tier cities is huge, and the industry still has a lot of room for development.
In January of this year, the 2018 edition of the "China Early Education Blue Book" released the list of China's top ten early education brands. The top ten institutions have a total of more than 3,600 stores nationwide. CR10 is about 30% in terms of the number of stores. The early education market has a certain chain. Such as the United States Jim (more than 400), Golden Baby (more than 360) and so on.
Early education courses generally have higher fees, and the price is more than 10,000 yuan. Half of the top ten early education institutions are international brand chains. Compared with domestic institutions, the international brand institutions spend between 20,000 and 30,000 on a course of 96 class hours. The Xinmin Evening News has also repeatedly reported on the phenomenon of high fees charged by early education institutions. In a recent report on April 4th, the parents surveyed said that the average early education course costs about 3 yuan per minute, even if it is expensive. . Although the fees charged by domestic institutions are relatively low, they are still expensive.
Foreign teachers are a major feature of international brand early education institutions. Both teachers and parents know that English training for infants and young children aged 0-3 is not based on indoctrinating education such as back words and sentence patterns. Only three of the top ten brands directly set up English courses are currently large. Most of the early education institutions that focus on language development allow children to naturally contact foreign teachers and immerse themselves in the English environment in the process of playing together to improve their awareness of English. As an international brand landing in China, it is naturally unique in the eyes of parents. However, local brand organizations are also aware that parents are paying more attention to English education, and are actively introducing bilingual courses or introducing American authoritative education. system.
3-6 years old preschool market:
Private kindergartens account for the largest proportion and the competition is scattered.
For children aged 3-6, the main place of education is concentrated in kindergartens. Compared with the flexible and flexible class time system of the early education institution, the kindergarten semester system is more fixed, the learning content is more systematic, and the spare time is correspondingly reduced. Whether it is for children or parents, extracurricular training seems to be somewhat more than enough, so parents focus on how to enter a quality kindergarten.
At present, domestic kindergartens are mainly privately-run, and the number is still rising. However, under the premise of the increasing number of kindergartens, the number of children entering the country has declined slightly. In 2016, the number of kindergartens enrolled by the education department, collective offices and other departments was lower than the 2010 level, and the admission of private kindergartens The number of people has steadily increased, and more than 2 million children have entered the kindergarten compared with 2010. Frost & Sullivan expects that the revenue of private kindergartens will increase from 147.9 billion yuan in 2016 to 288.4 billion yuan in 2021 in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.2%.
In the first three years of pre-school in China, the rate of entering the park has continued to increase. The rate of admission to first-tier cities has reached more than 95%, which is close to the level of developed countries. In May 2017, the Ministry of Education stated in the “Opinions of the Ministry of Education and other four departments on the implementation of the third pre-school education action planâ€: By 2020, the national pre-school three-year gross enrollment rate will reach 85%, and the coverage of inclusive kindergartens will be covered. The rate is around 80%.
Judging from the teachers' resources of public and private kindergartens in the country, public kindergartens have maintained 9-10 full-time teachers in each kindergarten. At the same time, private kindergartens have also paid more attention to improving the background of teachers' qualifications. By 2016, the average number of teachers in the park is the same. The public office is basically flat.
In 2013, the number of full-time kindergarten teachers increased sharply over the private sector. The main reason may be that in 2012, in order to strengthen the construction of public kindergarten teachers, the Ministry of Education, the Central Organization, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security jointly proposed Actually and reasonably determine the establishment of faculty and staff in public kindergartens, improve the qualification system for kindergarten teachers, and use public servants to support enterprises, institutions, collective kindergartens and inclusive private kindergartens. Under the favorable policy situation, more kindergarten teachers A more stable and secure public kindergarten was chosen.
The increase in the number of city teachers is mainly driven by demand, and the growth of the number of rural teachers is more driven by policies. Overall, the number of full-time teachers in urban and rural kindergartens is generally increasing, and the number of teachers in urban private kindergartens is the strongest. Due to the increasing population, the awareness of preschool education is generally ahead of the city, and the demand for high-quality kindergarten resources is relatively large. Therefore, the number of full-time teachers has increased year by year, among which private kindergartens are more obvious; while rural kindergartens rely on government policies to help gradually level up non-governmental At the same time, the rural people pay more attention to the preschool education, and the number of full-time teachers has also increased steadily.
Judging from the business model of private kindergartens, it is mainly divided into direct business and joining. The direct mode refers to the kindergarten invested and constructed by the headquarters and directly involved in the management. The business process, course content, and auxiliary teaching aids are all operated according to the headquarters. The franchise model mainly refers to the franchisees paying the franchise fee, brand usage fee, training and regular supervision to the brand headquarters, and building the brand kindergarten at the franchisee's location.
According to the content of the output of the coaching at the headquarters, the amount of the franchise fee and the closeness of the post-cooperation are determined. For example, equity cooperation and shareholding construction are all deeper and closer ways of joining and cooperating. In comparison, the franchise model is more conducive to the brand sinking to third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas, expanding the brand influence across the country. The direct-operating model should play a role as a model benchmark. Establishing a brand image with core competitiveness in the first-tier cities can further attract more high-quality franchisees and radiate brand effects to the whole country.
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