Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
Although the holiday is over, the thermal coal market has not yet fully recovered. The upstream coal enterprises have not yet fully resumed production. The enthusiasm of downstream power plants is under pressure, and the market maintains a weak supply and demand situation.
Recently, the domestic thermal coal market maintained the trend of “not prosperous in the peak seasonâ€. In mid-January, affected by the mining accident in Shaanxi, the production of coal mines in the main producing areas increased, and the price of thermal coal rebounded slightly. Among them, the 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port appeared 10-15/ Tons of gains. Beginning in January, the operating rate of the Spring Festival coal mines and the coal consumption of downstream enterprises remained low. The overall market turnover was deserted and the prices showed a steady downward trend. As of December 12, the mainstream closing price of 5,500 kcal coal in Qingang was 585-590/ton, down 155/ton from last year's 740-745/ton, down by 20.88%; the chain rose by 5/ton, or 0.86%. In Shandong, affected by the impact of ground pressure, Shandong large-scale mines stopped production and rectification in the middle of January, and the coal mine price remained basically stable, while the downstream power plant purchase price dropped 15-20/ton, with the continuous development of coal mines. After the resumption of production, the overall market bearish expectations are strong. Overall, after the Spring Festival holiday, the market has strong bearish expectations. Coal prices in coal mines in Shaanxi and other places have begun to show a slight decrease of 20-30/ton. In some areas, power plants have also experienced a decline of 10-15/ton. Presenting a wait-and-see situation.
I. Reasons for the rise in coal prices in the middle and late January
1. Influenced by the mining accident in Shaanxi on January 12, starting from January 13, the main producing coal mines have been suspended for production and rectification, and the supply has been greatly reduced. From January 13th to 14th, the coal mine production area in Shenmu area of ​​Shaanxi Province continued to expand. About 70% of the coal mines and coal preparation plants in Shenmu have been discontinued. According to Zhuo Chuang, Yulin City has a coal mine of 450,000 tons/year (inclusive). At home, the total production capacity is about 13.5 million tons, and the total capacity of the nine coal mines ordered to stop production is about 35.4 million tons. The above-mentioned shutdown coal mines account for 15.83% of the total coal production capacity of Yulin City. Starting from January 14th, in order to prevent and control major risks and prevent serious accidents in coal mines, Shanxi's coal and gas outburst, impact ground pressure, high gas and hydrogeological types are complex and extremely complex, and the mining depth is over 1000 meters. 6 types of high-risk coal mines with a single class and a large number of high-risk coal mines, carrying out a half-year safety “physical inspection†type of key supervision; affected by the Shenmu coal mine accident, on January 13th, the Ordos Zhungeerqi Coal Bureau held a full-scale coal mine safety production emergency The meeting arranged and deployed the recent work on coal mine safety production. The meeting did not force the coal mine to stop production and stop selling. The local coal mines are basically in the state of production, but the annual production is close to the annual output. Most of the mines have a holiday time of about 20 years after the twelfth lunar month.
2. A small number of power plants in the power plant before the holiday will make up the coal price to form a support. Although the power plant's coal inventory continued to maintain a high level of more than 20 days, but near the Spring Festival, in order to protect the normal use of coal during the holiday period, some power plants have a small amount of replenishment, especially in the southwest and central China, the demand for replenishment is relatively concentrated, coal supply The price forms a certain support.
Second, the reasons for the bearish coal price after the holiday
1. At the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the coal mine will resume normal production at about 15th of the first month. Zhuo Chuang understands that a few coal mines in Shanxi Jinbei area will resume production on February 11th, and some coal mines will have to wait until the first month of the 15th month. In addition to the normal production of individual large mines in Shaanxi Yulin area, most coal mines stop production and holiday, and the coal mining is resumed. The time is basically concentrated on February 12, and the time for resumption of small coal mines has not been clearly notified; the coal mines in Ordos, Inner Mongolia have resumed production since February 11th. The coal mines that have been re-produced are small and have to wait for resumption of production. It will take some time for the coal mine to return to normal.
2. The impact of holidays, the obvious decline in the electricity consumption of downstream industrial enterprises led to a significant decline in the daily consumption of coal in power plants. Although the holiday ended, the enthusiasm of industrial enterprises in the southern region to resume production was not high, resulting in a significant decline in the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas and southwestern China. As of February 12, the coal-fired inventories of the six major power plants in the coastal areas were 16.7474 million tons, with a daily consumption of 444,600 tons, which was available for 37.73 days. The daily consumption fell by 42.88%, down 19.92% year-on-year; the daily consumption of power plants in Sichuan and Chongqing fell by 30% compared with the pre-holiday period. about. Power plant inventory remained at a high level and procurement enthusiasm was suppressed.
3. The temperature rises and the coal used for heating in the north is expected to decline. The heating coal in the north is the main driving force for coal use in winter. According to preliminary calculations, the amount of coal used for heating is more than 100 million tons, so winter has been the traditional demand season for thermal coal. In the later period, the weather gradually warmed up, heating coal entered the closing period, and the demand for thermal coal is expected to shrink in a large area. Market participants are expected to fall into a high probability event for coal prices, and traders and downstream enterprises are not motivated to purchase further. Fighting coal prices.
4. The increase in imported coal has suppressed the domestic market. According to national policy requirements, imported coal still implements a “flat control policy†in 2019. According to the import level of 2018, the monthly import volume of imported coal will exceed 23 million tons in 2019, and a large amount of imported coal enters Hong Kong, which will impact the domestic coal market. In particular, due to the price advantage, the purchase of imported coal by coastal power plants increased, which reduced the purchase of domestic coal. The recovery of imported coal further increased the expectation of domestic supply easing, which further enhanced the domestic coal price bearish expectations.
Third, the impact of the backwardness of coal prices
Inventories of all links remained at a high level, coupled with the market's expected increase in the post-market decline, traders and downstream companies were affected, and the activeness of the thermal coal market will be suppressed. Overall, with the decline in prices, coal prices began to approach the “reasonable price range†predicted by the National Development and Reform Commission. The deficit situation of power companies will be improved, and the coal market will enter an ideal and healthy development track.
Fourth, the forecast of future price trends
Under the influence of the low enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for resumption of production and the rebound of temperature, the demand for thermal coal is expected to weaken and the price bearish space will increase. At the same time, the coal stocks of ports and downstream enterprises are both at a high level, and the enthusiasm for procurement is not high. Coupled with the impact of imported coal and the recovery of domestic production, the price of thermal coal is expected to be strong. Zhuo Chuang expects that in the short-term, the coal price has not been fully restored and the downstream enterprises have not fully recovered the coal. The coal price is mainly based on stable prices. After the fifteenth day of the first month of the month, the coal price has been lowered. Will be a high probability event.
Five, risk tips
Although the coal price drop is a high probability event, the coal mine has not yet fully resumed production. In addition to the two sessions, the inspection of safety and environmental protection will increase. The coal mine will have a certain number of variables. attention.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
This article is posted on this website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.
Article source address: http://
There are three modes to use the big diaper bag. It can be on the back with shoulder straps. It can be a diaper bag tote with handle straps. And with stroller strips, the diaper bag for dad and mom can be hanged on the stroller.
Mommy Backpack,Oxford Sports Rucksack,Business Briefcase,Custom Briefcase
Longzhao Technology (Guangdong) Company Limited , https://www.princebag.com