Baichuan Information
Lead: Recently, the corrugated paper market has swept away the haze and the sky is clear. Under the support of slightly better demand, we seized the last wave of opportunities before the year, and set sails at a price to jointly push up the ex-factory price of corrugated paper by 50-100 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream begins to take a holiday. It is expected that the corrugated paper will be dominated by a narrow range before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation will not be too large.
Buying and selling is active, the corrugated paper market is clear and clear
Recently, the corrugated paper market has swept away the haze and the sky is clear. Under the support of slightly better demand, we seized the last wave of opportunities before the year, and set sails at a price to jointly push up the ex-factory price of corrugated paper by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream reference price of domestic 120g corrugated paper is 3500-4000 yuan/ton.
This round of price increases can be smoothly transmitted to the terminal, mainly due to the synergy between cost, supply and demand. The specific analysis is as follows:
cost
Recently, the raw material yellow paper has risen, the overall cost of paper mills has increased, and the price of corrugated paper has risen.
supply
1. Small and medium-sized paper mills have more downtime, and the operating rate of corrugated paper is reduced: the environmental protection intensity in winter is increasing, and the environmental protection intensity in major producing areas such as Dongguan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong is increasing, the operating rate of paper mills is decreasing, and supply is shrinking;
2. There is no pressure on the scale of paper enterprises: under the traditional festival of the Spring Festival, the order of the carton factory has improved, the second and third grade factories have actively purchased, the paper enterprises have shipped smoothly, the inventory has been significantly reduced, there is no shipping pressure, and the paper mills have increased their driving power;
3. The price increase of the second and third grade factories is smooth: the price of the original paper is raised, the cost of the cardboard carton factory is under pressure, and the price of the cardboard carton is raised. The terminal accepts the price increase under the support of the Spring Festival demand, alleviating the cost pressure of the second and third grade factories, and the enthusiasm for getting the goods is improved. .
demand
In the second half of 2018, the corrugated paper market has been sluggish. The downstream goods are cautious and the stocks are low. This is the basis for the downstream replenishment. The Spring Festival just needs to increase and stimulate the enthusiasm of the downstream and downstream goods, the purchase and sales are active, and the trading atmosphere is heating up.
In short, the cost price support and the good performance of supply and demand, the price of corrugated paper is rising steadily. At present, the industry's mentality preference, on-site purchase and sales are active.
Market outlook: In February and March, the price of paper will not rise?
Negative factor
1. Plastic bags, hollow boxes, foam boxes, recycling cartons and other alternatives share the demand for carton packaging. Forming a negative for the corrugated base paper;
2. Article 52 of the "Electronic Commerce Law of the People's Republic of China", which was implemented on January 1, 2019, stipulates that express delivery logistics service providers shall use environmentally-friendly packaging materials in accordance with regulations to achieve reduction and reuse of packaging materials. The implementation of this regulation will further promote the use of green packaging materials, and the utilization rate of cartons will also increase simultaneously, and the market will be negative;
3. New production capacity: After the holiday, the new production capacity of corrugated boxboard paper is more, and the supply side is in the increase of production period. The following are the enterprises that will be put into production in the first and second quarters of 2019:
Good factor
1. Although the carton factory has purchased recently, the quantity is not large. With the successive consumption of the tails of the Spring Festival, the inventory is gradually consumed, and the demand for replenishment after the holiday is saved, and the price of corrugated paper is expected to rise in stages;
2. Recently, Liansheng Longhai, Sichuan Jintian and other paper enterprises have also issued Spring Festival stop letters. Compared with previous years, the total spring production time of the 2019 Spring Festival has increased. Some industry insiders said that the reduction in the operating rate of paper mills can ease the pressure on paper mills and play a positive role in promoting the recovery of paper prices. The current supply and demand are basically balanced;
3. Although the current demand has improved, but the price of paper mills is lower, the risk of dealers is not high, and the terminal is more eager to get goods directly from the paper mill. The function of the reservoir is weakened, and the dealers enter the market after the holiday. Can increase paper mill shipments.
As can be seen from the overall, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the downstream begins to take a holiday. It is expected that the Waqi paper will be dominated by a narrow range before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation will not be too large. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the market was slightly lighter and the price was stable. In March, dealers and second- and third-tier factories have the demand for replenishment, or they can push up the price of raw paper in a narrow range. However, after the new capacity is put into operation, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is intensified, and the increase in the original paper is limited, and the expected range is 50-100 yuan/ton.
At present, downstream customers are reducing the cost of high-weight and high-wattage, and most of them turn to the low-weight and high-watt of the sub-intensity of the ring. In 2019, the market competition is intensified, and the paper mills should follow the downstream procurement. Adjust the production paper type and weight at any time to minimize the profit reduction caused by inventory pressure.
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